Short Sale Riches

After Dec. 31, Treasury would need the consent of Congress to make such changes, so it's no surprise it moved a week before its authority to change the terms of its agreements with the companies was set to expire. So far, the government has pumped $60 billion into Fannie Mae and $51 billion into Freddie Mac. The new terms announced yesterday would allow the cap on Treasury's support to increaseby the amount of the total net loss the firms experience over the next three years, beginning on Jan. 1. The cap in place atthe end of 2012 would apply thereafter. Of course, as we reported yesterday, the changes come come as Fannie's and Freddie's regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, onThursday approved multimillion pay packages for the firms'top executives. The pay announcement and the sweeping increasein the government's commitment to backstop the companies arecertain to stoke anger from the companies' critics on CapitolHill. "The Obama administration's decision to write a blankcheck with taxpayer dollars for the continued bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is appalling," said Rep. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.). He argued the timing of the announcement,on Christmas Eve, was "designed to try and sneak the bailoutby the taxpayers."USD in 2010Most currency market analysts expect the U.S. currency to build on its 5-percent December bounce, as traders continue to factor in a stonger U.S. economy and an inevitable Fed tighening. Beyond that, however, a lot depends on just how poorly things go for other major currencies, such as the euro, pound and yen. "The dollar is very low; it has to move up," says economist Robert Brusca, chief economist with FAO Economics. In general, analysts expect the dollar to remainweak against the currencies of commodities-driven economiessuch as Canada, Australia and Brazil, while making gains against those of Japan, Britain and the European Union. Atthe same time, after a multi-year bear market that took thedollar to record lows against the euro and parity with the Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar, analysts say the worst is definitely over. "There's been a sea change in sentiment," says Boris Schlossberg, of GFT Forex. "The whole thesis beganto change when [Novermber] payrolls came out," he explains, referring to the Dec. 4 government report showing that the economy shed just 11,000 jobs, the least in almost two years. "Fundamental factors will be more favorable for the dollar next year," adds Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo, which is among the most bullish on the U.S. currency.DSNews.com -- Foreclosures in 2010According to a new study from the research team at Credit Suisse, the second half of 2010 will be a time of stabilization or a “renewed leg down” in housing, and it all depends on how aggressively the industry can rein in the swell of foreclosures. “We estimate that roughly 3.2 millionforeclosures must be prevented in 2010 for home prices to stabilize or potentially tick up,” the institution’s analystswrote in their report. The researchers called the feat an “uphill challenge,” with a very narrow path for success carvedout by government programs. The administration has promised that its federal modification program will help three to fourmillion homeowners avoid foreclosure, but those projectionscover a four-year span – from 2009 to 2012. And as it standsnow, the program is way behind schedule. As of the end of November, only 31,382 at-risk homeowners had been given permanent loan restructurings. Credit Suisse called the performance statistics of the administration’s Home AffordableModification Program (HAMP) “quite disappointing” but noted thatincreased government focus on raising conversion rates couldlead to an improvement in short-term results.This year not as bad as last for retailersMost retailers won't report their December sales results until next month, but early forecasts indicate things could be (as CNN puts it) "less awful than last year." The NationalRetail Federation (NRF) expects 2009 holiday sales in thosetwo months to decline 1%. That would still be an improvementfrom a 3.4% drop for the same period a year ago. Scott Hoyt,senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Economy.com,is forecasting that stores had "slightly better" holiday sales this year versus last year. "Fundamentally, things were a lot better for consumers," he said. "Last year everyonepanicked after the financial crisis. No one was sure how bad things would get. Although weakness still persists, such as 10% unemployment, the state of panic is gone." If 2009 marks a "transition year" for consumer spending, the hope is that 2010 becomes the year of recovery for consumers and retailers, said Michael Niemira, chief economist with the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). "Between the holiday season not being disastrous, more people buying for themselves on top of gifts, and retailers not offering crazy sales, I think these are good indicators for 2010," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with research firm NPD Group.
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